Retired now, Malcolm  was a veterinarian at Woods Humane Society from 2005 to 2012. He still resides in Morro Bay where he has found geographic fulfillment. Pictured here with his new side kick 'Annie' —  born last November —  they are both from Woods Humane Society. Contact Malcolm

Animals and Earthquake Prediction

by Malcolm Riordan 

That animals can sense impending earthquakes is legend. The earliest records of animals 'predicting' earthquakes by showing unusual behaviors just beforehand was chronicled in Greece, 400 BC. Rats, weasels, snakes, and centipedes had been seen – it was written — to depart their niches for safety several days before a destructive earthquake.

Over the centuries since, there are very common, similar testimonial and anecdotal observations of unusual animal behavior before earthquakes. And not just mammals, reports include fish, birds, reptiles, and insects that exhibited atypical and unusual activity anywhere from weeks to seconds before an earthquake.

Although these legendary observations are widespread across the planet and twenty-five centuries, there has been little scientific effort and curiosity via studies that would attempt to validate consistent and reliable behavior prior to seismic events. Is it, indeed, fact rather than a widespread mythical notion?  And further, there is even less scientific effort to elucidate mechanism(s) explaining — beyond the theoretical — how it all works.

Still, there are scientists pursuing these mysteries, most such researchers are in China or Japan, while in the west it is easier to find varying degrees of skepticism regarding the phenomena of animal behavior predicting earthquakes.

Eighty percent of Chinese live rurally and are in close contact with farm or wild animals. These people were surveyed for general observations — lore and other stories — in a rare effort to collect, record, organize, validate, and analyze the information all have heard about.

With that done, it was more important, indeed necessary, to increase the accuracy of animal behavior observations by seeking only first-hand, fresh memories.  The Chinese scientists then would go out to areas that had just experienced significant earthquakes. They collected, surveyed, and polled very fresh, recent observations from first hand sources. This methodology weeds out a lot of second- and third-hand word of mouth, traditional oral stories, lore, and embellished tale telling.  

Some of these first hand stories that Chinese scientists collected of animal behavior witnessed just before earthquakes [as reported in the work of George Pararas Carayannis, a geophysicist and world expert on seismic activity] are presented below with both paraphrase and direct quoting:

— Wolves were seen running around in packs, dogs were barking unusually, and sparrows were flying around wildly.
— All the dogs at a village near the epicenter had deserted their kennels and thus survived the disaster.
— Goats refusing to go into pens pigs squealing strangely.
— Chickens dashing out of the coops in the middle of the night.
— Fish darting about aimlessly.
— Birds leaving their nests.
— Cats and dogs picking up their offspring and carrying them outdoors.
— Zoo animals refused to go back into their shelters at night.
— Snakes, lizards and small mammals evacuated their underground nests for safety in the open.
— Insects congregated in huge swarms near the seashores.
— Cattle sought higher ground.
— Domestic animals became agitated.
— Wild birds left their usual habitats.

Tomas

Tater

Stella

Trinity

"Once the Chinese began to study such unusual animal behavior systematically, and had amassed a lot of data, they turned to establishing operational networks which could report such behaviors in real time. The Chinese government considered such information on animal behavior vital to earthquake prediction. Thus in 1968 China established its first experimental station for earthquake predictions making use of biological observations.

"In 1969 unusual behavior was observed in sea gulls, sharks, and five different species of fish in the area around Tientsin. That, coupled with nearby observations of unusual behavior of giant pandas, deer, yaks, loaches, tigers and other animals, a warning was issued at the Tientsin People's Park Zoo two hours before a significant earthquake struck.

"The Haicheng earthquake of February 1975 was predicted successfully as early as in mid-December of 1974! The most unusual and earliest circumstance of animal behavior was that of snakes that came up and out of hibernation, only to freeze on the surface of the earth. Also a group of rats appeared. These events were followed by a swarm of earthquakes at the end of December 1974. During the following month, January 1975, thousands of reports of unusual animal behavior were received from the general area. Local people were again seeing hibernating snakes coming out from their holes and into the snow — dying to get out of the ground it could be said. In the first three days of February the activity intensified even more and unusual behavior of the larger animals such as cows, horses, dogs and pigs was reported. These widely observed and duly reported observations preceded the February 4, 1975 earthquake of magnitude 7.3 that struck the Haicheng County, Liaoning Province.

"Surveys done in China show that the largest number of cases of unusual animal behavior that precedes an earthquake concentrate in the 24 hours before it struck. A total of 58 species of animals had shown unusual behaviors. Major earthquakes in China have been preceded not only by foreshocks, but also unusual behavior in rats, fish, and snakes which had been observed as early as three days prior to the earthquake, and continued to several hours, even into the several minutes before quakes hit.

"As China considers such information on animal behavior vital to prediction, it established in 1968 its first experimental station for earthquake predictions making use of biological observations. This experimental station was established in Hsingtai Province. Other similar stations were set up in 1971 in Aksu, Sinkiang Province, where more frequent earthquakes were known to occur.

"Since 1971, the Chinese established operational networks in different communities or counties. Whenever unusual events occur and are reported by numerous observers, these are evaluated as a way of predicting earthquakes. This is made easier for the Chinese scientists since 80 percent of the population live in farming areas that are in close association with animals which can be observed readily."

Experienced observation is more difficult to find from people living in urban areas, watching for unusual animal behavior.

1) There is less expertise in the city people observing the lesser amount of animals that would be in the cities.
2) In urban settings, the exaggerated background noise makes it harder or impossible for animals to filter out all the racket of a mechanized civilization enough to sense the known or theoretical 'signals' preceding earthquakes.

The discovery of earthquakes' smaller P waves that travel faster and arrive before the larger and destructive S waves, P waves finally began to explain unusual animal behavior in the seconds before an earthquake. Rarely do humans become aware of the smaller P waves.  Animals, with their keener senses, are able to feel or hear the P wave seconds before the S wave arrives. But this is just seconds.

As for sensing an impending earthquake days or weeks before it occurs there is no theory or mechanism for any other precursors, still unknown, that occur days, weeks or hours before an earthquake.

"For example, dogs may be able to hear the microfacturing of rocks a few milliseconds before a quake shock reaches the surface. Electromagnetic changes in the earth prior to an earthquake may be sensed by such animals as sharks and catfish which have low or high frequency receptors and sense such changes actively or passively. Also electromagnetic field changes could be affecting migrating birds and the navigational ability of fish."

The principle focus of research work for earthquake prediction in China has been narrowed to the behavior of pigeons as the model species.

Sadly, our future does not include noble pigeons being used as sentries. The ultimate tools of earthquake prediction would no longer include the direct use of animals. To the extent that researchers and scientists in the future will identify what stimuli the animals are responding to during the weeks, days, or hours before an earthquake, would almost certainly use the information gleaned from studying animals to develop instrumentation that would robo-monitor the physical energy stimuli, be they sounds, other energy waves,  electrical-field, or magnetic-field fluctuations.

Meanwhile we can keep an eye on any animals, wild or domestic, in our environment. Not the least, our best friends.

For more information, see Earthquake Prediction China

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